Ethan’s July Northeast Florida Housing Market Update

Is The Market Slowing Down?

You’ve probably been reading in the news about a market slowdown. Warnings of a coming recession, lower mortgage demand, crypto markets faltering, and a slew of bad news from Wall Street. But how does all that apply to housing? In particular, housing in Northeast Florida.

House prices are still showing strong numbers with a 20.7% increase in home values over the past year. That is a huge number and one to be happy about. But the past few months have told a different story and home values tend to lag activity. We are at the leading edge of a market change so prices have not caught up to what we as real estate agents are seeing on the ground. So what is important to review now is current demand.

If you look at the chart you’ll see that new listings are down 3% year over year. Meaning there are less new homes coming on the market than a year ago. Which is the same story we have been saying for 2 years about the shortage of homes on the market. But what has changed is the buyer demand. The increase in mortgage rates to just above 6% has cooled down buyer activity greatly. The bottom 2 lines of the chart show that active inventory is up 14.2% year over year. And, the month’s supply of inventory is up 39% YoY. That is with even fewer new listings.

These 3 stats clearly indicate buyer demand has significantly shifted in a short amount of time.

Are we still in a seller’s market?

Of course, we are! There are still low amounts of homes on the market and quality homes are still being snatched up quickly. Average days on the market are at 19 days. Which historically is very fast but well above last year’s average by 46.2%.

Outlook unclear?

So what does this all mean about the outlook for the housing market in Northeast Florida? The change is underway but what direction will things go? Are we in for a quick market shift downward or a return to a more normal market with buyers and sellers re-aligning their thoughts on the market?

Well, I don’t have a crystal ball but I do have a Magic 8-ball. It seemed just as reliable so I asked what direction the housing market was going and received the answer “Cannot Predict Now”.

That seemed like a fitting response.

Housing fundamentals are still strong right now but we cannot predict the future. Your best bet if buying or selling is to make a decision that is best for you and your family. Trying to time the market is next to impossible so rely on what is important to you and your life when making a decision. And as always, work with a market professional who can help guide you through the process and the ever-changing market.

Happy house hunting!